While I agree with Andrew Sullivan, I'm divided over his conclusions;
"In retrospect, I made three basic miscalculations in favoring the war to depose Saddam three years ago. I thought Saddam had stockpiles of WMDs the discovery of which would bolster support for the war after liberation; I believed we would have enough troops to keep the peace; and I thought the massive reconstruction funds would buy popular support for the occupation. Wrong on all three counts. Here's a story from the NYT today on the reconstruction of Najaf. Najaf is remarkably free from major violence, and yet the reconstruction is still a shambles, hobbled by poor oversight, corruption, delays, translation problems and general incompetence. Anyone who knows contractors of any kind knows some of this is part of the process. But you just have to read this story to see how widespread this mess is. Again: issue one for the Bush administration is government competence. They don't seem to have much. And in the end, with even the best policy in the world, competence matters. Iraq is particularly apposite here, because if there was ever a case in which we knew we had to get it right, this was it. And yet, they seem never at a loss for excuses for failure. Discouraging doesn't quite capture the essence of this. Maddening is more like it.
I think that a more historical perspecive will be required to adequately judge the liberation and reconstruction of Iraq. The total disconnect between the efficient planning for combat operations, and the bungled planning for post-war occupationa nd reconstrcution is glaring. For a while I attributed this to a institutional mind-set that feared being "too ready" to administer Iraq; hence feeding the meme that America planned all-along to annex Iraq and it's oil-fields. Now the results point-out that the war-plan did not include an after-action plan, a potentially fatal error in the post-Cold War era.
Somewhere between the White House, Foggy Bottom and the Pentagon they compromised on a very "light" occupation...and "light" on planning as-well. Out of fear of the "Arab Street", or of the international criticism, they opted for two weak-handed transitional phases; where they shoud have installed an American satrapy with a fixed mandate of 2-3 years, then a handover to sovereign civilian-rule. The three glaring planning errors, based on "policy", were; the disbandment of the Saddam-military apparatus; the failure to occupy and secure the ministries, museums, libraries and hospitals; and the subsequent failure to crush the looting rampages.
Sunday, September 18, 2005
Friday, September 09, 2005
Moving Day...
(AP)Updated: 8:06 a.m. ET Sept. 9, 2005
"WASHINGTON - More than half the Americans surveyed in a national poll say the flooded areas of New Orleans lying below sea level should be abandoned and rebuilt on higher ground. An AP-Ipsos poll found that 54 percent of Americans want the four-fifths of New Orleans that was flooded by Hurricane Katrina moved to a safer location.
Their skepticism about restoring New Orleans below sea level comes as the public mood has darkened after one of the nation’s worst natural disasters. "....
"WASHINGTON - More than half the Americans surveyed in a national poll say the flooded areas of New Orleans lying below sea level should be abandoned and rebuilt on higher ground. An AP-Ipsos poll found that 54 percent of Americans want the four-fifths of New Orleans that was flooded by Hurricane Katrina moved to a safer location.
Their skepticism about restoring New Orleans below sea level comes as the public mood has darkened after one of the nation’s worst natural disasters. "....
Tuesday, September 06, 2005
A New Legacy...
For better or worse, George W. Bush's historical legacy will be built on the Federal and National response to the New Orleans Diaspora, not the War on Terror as the neocons wanted.
How this changes the dynamics of the Administration remains to be seen. Unlike NYC, were the developers are still hangling over the whole in the ground, but the people have homes and jobs; the effects of the NOLA Submergence has families distrupted, homes and businesses lost, and massive infastructural damage that has a ripple-effect throughout the Mississippi Basin and the East Coast. This is a diaspora on a national-scale not seen since the Dust Bowl, and will have long-term social and economic dislocations.
How this changes the dynamics of the Administration remains to be seen. Unlike NYC, were the developers are still hangling over the whole in the ground, but the people have homes and jobs; the effects of the NOLA Submergence has families distrupted, homes and businesses lost, and massive infastructural damage that has a ripple-effect throughout the Mississippi Basin and the East Coast. This is a diaspora on a national-scale not seen since the Dust Bowl, and will have long-term social and economic dislocations.
Monday, September 05, 2005
While we are fillling in names for supoenas...
Instapundit had a damning link to James Lee Witt, who Gov. Blanco STILLS wants to have coordinate Louisiana' relief operations...rather than cede it to Federal control and Gen. Honore'...
"IEM Inc., a Baton Rouge, La.-based emergency management and homeland security consultant, announced it will lead the development of a catastrophic hurricane disaster plan for Southeast Louisiana and the City of New Orleans under a more than half a million dollar contract with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security/Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). ... In making the announcement today on behalf of teaming partners Dewberry, URS Corporation and James Lee Witt Associates, IEM Director of Homeland Security Wayne Thomas explained that the development of a base catastrophic hurricane disaster plan has urgency due to the recent start of the annual hurricane season which runs through November. "...
... "Given this area's vulnerability, unique geographic location and elevation, and troubled escape routes, a plan that facilitates a rapid and effective hurricane response and recovery is critical," he said. "The IEM team's approach to catastrophic planning meets the challenges associated with integrating multi-jurisdictional needs and capabilities into an effective plan for addressing catastrophic hurricane strikes, as well as man-made catastrophic events.
IEM President and CEO Madhu Beriwal is the recipient of a special merit award from the Louisiana Emergency Preparedness Association ( LEPA ) for her work in New Orleans hurricane emergency preparedness"....
Now I know who gets the fourth and fifth Congressional hearing supeona after Blanco, Nagin and Brown...Witt and Beriwal.
"IEM Inc., a Baton Rouge, La.-based emergency management and homeland security consultant, announced it will lead the development of a catastrophic hurricane disaster plan for Southeast Louisiana and the City of New Orleans under a more than half a million dollar contract with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security/Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). ... In making the announcement today on behalf of teaming partners Dewberry, URS Corporation and James Lee Witt Associates, IEM Director of Homeland Security Wayne Thomas explained that the development of a base catastrophic hurricane disaster plan has urgency due to the recent start of the annual hurricane season which runs through November. "...
... "Given this area's vulnerability, unique geographic location and elevation, and troubled escape routes, a plan that facilitates a rapid and effective hurricane response and recovery is critical," he said. "The IEM team's approach to catastrophic planning meets the challenges associated with integrating multi-jurisdictional needs and capabilities into an effective plan for addressing catastrophic hurricane strikes, as well as man-made catastrophic events.
IEM President and CEO Madhu Beriwal is the recipient of a special merit award from the Louisiana Emergency Preparedness Association ( LEPA ) for her work in New Orleans hurricane emergency preparedness"....
Now I know who gets the fourth and fifth Congressional hearing supeona after Blanco, Nagin and Brown...Witt and Beriwal.
Northern Command was Ready
It's becoming apparent that not EVERYONE was caught unawares. The recent performance of Northern Command and Gen Russell Honere' demonstrates that. But does that matter if they couldn't legally act?.....
http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/5167.html
"... When the BBC noted the criticism of the government's slow response, Lt. Commander Kelly explained that NorthCom was ready to go well in advance of Katrina making landfall, but suggested the president didn't make the right call at the right time.
"Northcom started planning before the storm even hit. We were ready when it hit Florida, because, as you remember, it hit the bottom part of Florida, and then we were planning once it was pointed towards the Gulf Coast.
"So, what we did, we activated what we call 'defense coordinating officers' to work with the states to say, 'OK, what do you think you will need?' And we set up staging bases that could be started.
"We had the USS Bataan sailing almost behind the hurricane so once the hurricane made landfall, its search and rescue helicopters could be available almost immediately So, we had things ready.
"The only caveat is: we have to wait until the president authorizes us to do so. The laws of the United States say that the military can't just act in this fashion; we have to wait for the president to give us permission."
Apparently, that permission could have been given right away, but it wasn't. ...."
A question that someone might be able to clarify…I don't know the anwer;
Federal statute and long-standing tradition is that Federal troops and resources can not be deployed without the permission or aquiescence of the State Governor where the troops will be deployed. Considering how Gov. Blanco had been dragging here feet over authorizing HER OWN National Guard troops; could the President release his "authorization" over her objections? It's been well documented that Gov. Blanco…as of this morning…was still stalling over authorizing Federal oversight and authority in Louisiana.
BUT, IF Pres. Bush could not legally "authorize" Northern Command without prior State acquiescence, can he be "blamed" for not doing so?? Especially when the governor of the state affected was all-over the airwaves patting herself on the back for NOLA's again "dodging the bullet"? The flooding of NOLA didn't become obvious until AFTER the storm passed. And it was well-known in the emergency-preparedness planning that Federal resources would not be able to arrive in-quantity until Day-Four.
I'll wait for the Congressinal Hearings to watch Blanco and Nagin squirm, before they plead the Fifth.
UPDATE: Kelly has clarified that it was FEMA that NorComm was waiting-on for authorization. That would be Mr. Brown.
.... "USNORTHCOM was prepositioned for response to the hurricane, but as per the National Response Plan, we support the lead federal agency in disaster relief — in this case, FEMA. The simple description of the process is the state requests federal assistance from FEMA which in turn may request assistance from the military upon approval by the president or Secretary of Defense. Having worked the hurricanes from last year as well as Dennis this year, we knew that FEMA would make requests of the military — primarily in the areas of transportation, communications, logistics, and medicine. Thus we began staging such assets and waited for the storm to hit.
"The biggest hurdles to responding to the storm were the storm itself — couldn't begin really helping until it passed — and damage assessment — figuring out which roads were passable, where communications and power were out, etc. Military helos began damage assessment and SAR on Tuesday. Thus we had permission to operate as soon as it was possible. We even brought in night SAR helos to continue the mission on Tuesday night.
The President and Secretary of Defense did authorize us to act right away and are not to blame on this end. Yes, we have to wait for authorization, but it was given in a timely manner." ....
http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/5167.html
"... When the BBC noted the criticism of the government's slow response, Lt. Commander Kelly explained that NorthCom was ready to go well in advance of Katrina making landfall, but suggested the president didn't make the right call at the right time.
"Northcom started planning before the storm even hit. We were ready when it hit Florida, because, as you remember, it hit the bottom part of Florida, and then we were planning once it was pointed towards the Gulf Coast.
"So, what we did, we activated what we call 'defense coordinating officers' to work with the states to say, 'OK, what do you think you will need?' And we set up staging bases that could be started.
"We had the USS Bataan sailing almost behind the hurricane so once the hurricane made landfall, its search and rescue helicopters could be available almost immediately So, we had things ready.
"The only caveat is: we have to wait until the president authorizes us to do so. The laws of the United States say that the military can't just act in this fashion; we have to wait for the president to give us permission."
Apparently, that permission could have been given right away, but it wasn't. ...."
A question that someone might be able to clarify…I don't know the anwer;
Federal statute and long-standing tradition is that Federal troops and resources can not be deployed without the permission or aquiescence of the State Governor where the troops will be deployed. Considering how Gov. Blanco had been dragging here feet over authorizing HER OWN National Guard troops; could the President release his "authorization" over her objections? It's been well documented that Gov. Blanco…as of this morning…was still stalling over authorizing Federal oversight and authority in Louisiana.
BUT, IF Pres. Bush could not legally "authorize" Northern Command without prior State acquiescence, can he be "blamed" for not doing so?? Especially when the governor of the state affected was all-over the airwaves patting herself on the back for NOLA's again "dodging the bullet"? The flooding of NOLA didn't become obvious until AFTER the storm passed. And it was well-known in the emergency-preparedness planning that Federal resources would not be able to arrive in-quantity until Day-Four.
I'll wait for the Congressinal Hearings to watch Blanco and Nagin squirm, before they plead the Fifth.
UPDATE: Kelly has clarified that it was FEMA that NorComm was waiting-on for authorization. That would be Mr. Brown.
.... "USNORTHCOM was prepositioned for response to the hurricane, but as per the National Response Plan, we support the lead federal agency in disaster relief — in this case, FEMA. The simple description of the process is the state requests federal assistance from FEMA which in turn may request assistance from the military upon approval by the president or Secretary of Defense. Having worked the hurricanes from last year as well as Dennis this year, we knew that FEMA would make requests of the military — primarily in the areas of transportation, communications, logistics, and medicine. Thus we began staging such assets and waited for the storm to hit.
"The biggest hurdles to responding to the storm were the storm itself — couldn't begin really helping until it passed — and damage assessment — figuring out which roads were passable, where communications and power were out, etc. Military helos began damage assessment and SAR on Tuesday. Thus we had permission to operate as soon as it was possible. We even brought in night SAR helos to continue the mission on Tuesday night.
The President and Secretary of Defense did authorize us to act right away and are not to blame on this end. Yes, we have to wait for authorization, but it was given in a timely manner." ....
Saturday, September 03, 2005
The Goat?
History will point the well-deserved finger of Blame squarely at the Mayor of New Orleans, C. Ray Nagin;
a. He failed in implement his own city's emergency preparedness plan.
b. He left hundreds of city-owned busses to drown, rather than use them to evacuate low-lying neighborhoods to either safe-shelter or out the storm's path. And those same busses were not safe-guarded to be used for subsequent evacuations after the storm passed.
c. He failed to stock and prepare the very storm-shelters that he then directed his people to use...creating a death-trap situation.
d. He failed to issue shoot-on-sight orders for any looters on non-essential survival items.
And Gov. Blanco also failed to follow the state's own emergency-preparedness plan, and failed to mobilize the hundreds of school busses that she had control over through the La. Dept. of Education.
This was not a failure to plan, nor was this a "surprise, unforseeable event". A direct hit on NOLA has been discussed almost every time a hurricane enters the Gulf of Mexico...for years.
I have no doubt that there will be many instances revealed in the subsequent Congressional Hearings on how the Corps, FEMA and Homeland Security should have spotted the short-comings of local preparedness; and their own lack of imagination to war-game this through fully and act on the conclusions. But Civil Defense and Emergency Preparedness are "local issues" that should be dealt with at the local-level, with back-up provided by the resources of the Federal government and the Military. The Mayor of New Orleans and the Governor of Louisiana had...and have still...the principal responsibility for the bungled preparations and the inept follow-through.
I knew the people of NOLA were in trouble the minute I saw them standing the streets waiting to get into the Superdome. Competent planning would have gotten everyone inside as fast as possible through every door the place had....and stocks of food, water, bedding; and provisions for powering the lights and AC for days. Every power company has portable generators on flat-bed trucks, powered by the same jet-turbines that that power airliners and USN ships. A couple of them parked in a protected part of the elevated parking garage with a tanker-trailer of diesel fuel is beyond their imagination?
a. He failed in implement his own city's emergency preparedness plan.
b. He left hundreds of city-owned busses to drown, rather than use them to evacuate low-lying neighborhoods to either safe-shelter or out the storm's path. And those same busses were not safe-guarded to be used for subsequent evacuations after the storm passed.
c. He failed to stock and prepare the very storm-shelters that he then directed his people to use...creating a death-trap situation.
d. He failed to issue shoot-on-sight orders for any looters on non-essential survival items.
And Gov. Blanco also failed to follow the state's own emergency-preparedness plan, and failed to mobilize the hundreds of school busses that she had control over through the La. Dept. of Education.
This was not a failure to plan, nor was this a "surprise, unforseeable event". A direct hit on NOLA has been discussed almost every time a hurricane enters the Gulf of Mexico...for years.
I have no doubt that there will be many instances revealed in the subsequent Congressional Hearings on how the Corps, FEMA and Homeland Security should have spotted the short-comings of local preparedness; and their own lack of imagination to war-game this through fully and act on the conclusions. But Civil Defense and Emergency Preparedness are "local issues" that should be dealt with at the local-level, with back-up provided by the resources of the Federal government and the Military. The Mayor of New Orleans and the Governor of Louisiana had...and have still...the principal responsibility for the bungled preparations and the inept follow-through.
I knew the people of NOLA were in trouble the minute I saw them standing the streets waiting to get into the Superdome. Competent planning would have gotten everyone inside as fast as possible through every door the place had....and stocks of food, water, bedding; and provisions for powering the lights and AC for days. Every power company has portable generators on flat-bed trucks, powered by the same jet-turbines that that power airliners and USN ships. A couple of them parked in a protected part of the elevated parking garage with a tanker-trailer of diesel fuel is beyond their imagination?
Thursday, September 01, 2005
The New Orleans Diaspora
There can be no other word.
The city and populace are shattered and while some may return, many will not.
While it makes financial and logistical sense to repair and rebuild Downtown, the waterfront and French Quarter (which are on higher ground). It may make sense to simply (hah!) level whole swathes of the low-lying suburban residential districts and resettle the inhabitants elsewhere and return those area's to the wetlands they were. The debris and rubble can be used to raise the ground-level around those parts of the city that house community assets like the hospitals and the universities. Just as low-lying communities where replanted on higher-ground along the Mississippi River after the floods of the 90's, it may be time to consider similar options. Is it practical to rebuild 1-in-3 homes and have open lots of rubble between as many families take their settlements are move elsewhere?
There will be another hurricane cat-4 or cat-5, it's inevitable. To merely replicate the existing bad situation and hope that "higher, stronger" levees will hold is the same whistling-in-the-dark that the Mayor and Governor's offices did this time. Here is the opportunity to re-fashion the problem, not just paper-over it.
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